All Publications

Human Migration and Natural Resources – Global Assessment of an Adaptive Complex System (UNEP & International Resource Panel, 2023)

This report contributes to the global discussion by moving the discussion of natural resources and migration from being based primarily around environmental determinism to one which recognizes the co-evolutionary nature of society and the environment. Read More…

Climate Change, Conflict and (In)Security (2023)

The volume examines how climate change is creating and exacerbating insecurities for millions of people globally, and how states, inter-governmental bodies, and others are attempting to meet challenges today and in the near and medium term. It shows that climate change insecurity is relevant to a battery of security areas, including warfighting, stabilisation, human security, influence, and resilience and capacity building. Read Alp Analytica’s contribution, ‘Cascading and systemic risks from environmental change‘. Read More…

African Climate Security Risk Assessment: Executive Summary (2023)

This executive summary of the forthcoming African Climate Security Risk Assessment summarises insights on climate change, peace, and security in Africa. The report itself was requested by the African Union Peace and Security Council (AU-PSC) and is the result of the collaboration between the African Union Commission for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (AUC-PAPS) and adelphi. Alp Analytica contributed a background paper on West Africa for this risk assessment. Read More…

Climate Security and Peacebuilding – Thematic Review (United Nations University, 2023)

The 2023 Thematic Review on Climate Security and Peacebuilding, commissioned by PBSO in partnership with FAO, UNICEF, Climate Security Mechanism and the UK, and led by the UN University’s Centre for Policy Research, distills trends and lessons from climate-security and environmental peacebuilding programming supported by the Peacebuilding Fund, and suggests guidance for future investments in climate-security efforts in fragile and conflict-affected contexts. Read More…

The impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine on climate security and climate action Independent Experts’ Analysis (Chatham House, 2023)

The war in Ukraine is increasing vulnerability to climate change around the world and complicating collective efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While the war is an immediate existential threat for Ukraine, climate change is a short-, medium- and long-term threat around the world, particularly for the most vulnerable, including women, children and the poor. This independent experts’ paper was produced for the OSCE and coordinated by Chatham House. It aims to assess the impact of the war on people’s vulnerability to climate change, to understand the cascading security impacts that climate change could precipitate, and to consider what the war means for the prospects for ambitious climate action in Ukraine, in the OSCE area, and globally. Read More…

Natural resources, human mobility and sustainability: a review and research gap analysis (2022)

Pressures on natural resources, such as from environmental change, have influenced the global human mobility landscape. This peer-reviewed article evaluates the scientific evidence on the interlinkages between natural resources, human migration and sustainability. Drawing on a review of the existing literature in combination with the authors’ research experience, the article considers a range of conceptual perspectives and empirical studies covered in the literature since the turn of the millennium. Read More…

Mainstreaming Environmental Sustainability and Clean Energy Access in the Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan (3RP) (UNHCR, UNDP, 2022)

This report highlights the link between ecological fragility and humanitarian and development needs in the 3RP countries. It explores the relations between ecological degradation and the refugee crisis, showcasing some of the main challenges for 3RP partners and what 3RP is already doing best to cope with environmental degradation and energy access. It introduces a list of global, regional, and national stakeholders working on environmental sustainability and energy provision in 3RP countries. Read More…

Moving from Reaction to Action – Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel (United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel, 2022)

This report explores climate change, food security, conflict and migration and displacement in the Sahel, providing predictions of how those risks may change in the future under different climate change and development scenarios. It outlines strategic recommendations for a structural transformation of the way we work towards increased resilience. Read More…

The White Paper on the Future of Environmental Peacebuilding (2022)

The White Paper on the Future of Environmental Peacebuilding delivers a strong, cogent message about the relevance, evidence, and promise of environmental peacebuilding. Read More…

Peace Operations and the Challenges of Environmental Degradation and Resource Scarcity (SIPRI, 2021)

This paper investigates the non-traditional security challenges that environmental degradation and resource scarcity pose to multilateral peace operations, whether deployed by the UN or regional organizations such as the AU or the OSCE. Read More…

Smart, Sustainable and Resilient cities: the Power of Nature-based Solutions (UNDP, 2021)

This report investigates the potential of nature-based solutions (NbS) to help build smart, sustainable and resilient cities. It draws from more than a decade of research and experience from G20 countries and beyond. Read more..

Mitigating the climate change risks to global security (Chatham House, 2021)

This paper seeks to explain why and how the UK should include a focus on security
in its climate strategy going forward, and what this could achieve. Read more..

The Impact of Covid-19 on Environmental Sustainability in Iraq (UNDP, 2021)

This paper investigates the direct and indirect environmental impacts in Iraq as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, set against the existing situation of environmental sustainability in the country .. Read more..

Climate risk management for international organizations (Chatham House, 2021)

This paper investigates the extent to which international organizations are
incorporating climate change into their strategic planning and risk management. Read more..

Making Peace with the Climate (EIP, 2020)

This paper investigates the direct and indirect environmental impacts in Iraq as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, set against the existing situation of environmental sustainability in the country Read more..

Europe and Climate Security: Is Europe Delivering on its Rhetoric? (EIP, 2020)

Over the past 15 years, climate-related risks to peace and stability have fastly risen up the European agenda. This report explores the extent to which this policy focus has influenced the international.. Read more..

RISK BRIEF NORTH AFRICA & SAHEL (Climate Diplomacy, 2020)

This risk brief aims to provide a concise overview of peer-reviewed literature on
the links between climate change and violent conflict in the Sahel, Sahara and
North Africa. Read more..

Shoring up Stability: Addressing Climate and Fragility Risks in the Lake Chad Region (Adelphi, 2019)

Lake Chad is caught in a conflict trap. Violence between armed opposition groups – including the so-called ‘Islamic State West Africa Province’ and ‘Boko Haram’ – and state security forces has left 10.7 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. Climate change is compounding these challenges. This report identifies key risks and proposes pragmatic solutions to shore up stability in the region. Read more..

Climate Fragility Risk Brief: Afghanistan (Adelphi, 2019)

This climate fragility risk brief outlines some of the ways in which climate change
threatens long-term peace and stability in Afghanistan: Climate shocks and climate
‘headwinds’ could worsen poverty, weaken governance and contribute to
instability. Read more..

Driving Transformational Change: Foreign Policy and the 2030 Agenda (Adelphi & German Government, 2019)

The SDGs set out a powerful vision for a better world, but action since 2015 is not delivering that promise. Foreign policy practitioners are in a unique position to help advocate for and assist in the implementation of the SDGs. Read more..

Measuring Progress: Towards achieving the environmental dimensions of the SDGs (UN Environment, 2019)

The SDGs provide a framework which elaborates the global development agenda towards achieving a better and more sustainable future for all. This report provides an authoritative overview of the world’s progress towards achieving the environmental dimensions of the 244 indicators which have been agreed on as the monitoring framework for the SDGs. Read more..

The Politics of Space for Conservation: A political economy analysis of the allocation of territory for biodiversity in Kenya (UCL Dissertation, 2018)

This research (produced as part of a distance learning Masters) aims to understand the economic and social factors that are driving political decisions on the allocation, or removal, of protected areas in Kenya. This will help to identify points of leverage to influence political decisions in support of conservation Read more..

Frontiers – Emerging issues of environmental concern (UNEP, 2017)

In 2016, about 31.1 million people were newly displaced within their own countries because of conflicts, violence and natural disasters—the latter responsible for 24.2 million of them. The increased awareness of risks from a changing environment and climate reinforces the need for good planning for in-place adaptation and policy design to prevent or manage human displacements. Read more..

Addressing Natural Resource Conflicts: Working towards more effective resolution of national and sub-national resource disputes (Chatham House, 2015)

At a broad level four types of resource dispute can present a general challenge to national stability: secessionist conflicts in which resource-rich regions seek to split away from the rest of a country; disputes over resources as part of a new national compact (i.e. in the context of a peace agreement or new constitution); grievances over standalone projects such as mines and hydroelectric dams; and the cumulative impact of multiple small-scale clashes, typically over land, livestock or fresh water.. Read more..

Investing In Stability: Can extractive-led development help build peace? (Chatham House, 2015)

Over the past decade growing demand for resources, geostrategic competition and new technologies have pushed resource exploration and development into increasingly politically, socially and environmentally sensitive areas. At the same time, donors and multilateral development banks have backed ‘extractives-led growth’ models in fragile and conflict-affected situations on the basis that resource development may help support stability and thus the underlying conditions for peace. Read more..

The impact of EU trade agreements on conflict and peace (EPLO, 2013)

The European Union (EU has signed more Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) than any other trade bloc. Its economic influence extends around the world. The trade agreements that the EU concludes with its partners define and determine the EU’s trade and investment relations with a wide range of countries: rich and poor, weak and strong, fragile and stable.r peace. Read more..

Natural Resource Management and Peacebuilding in Afghanistan (UN, 2013)

This report investigates the ways in which the management of land, water, minerals, forests and drugs are linked to instability and insecurity in Afghanistan. Its aims are two-fold: first, to suggest ways that the government and the international community can maximise the peacebuilding opportunities that come from better natural resource management and, second, to encourage the international community to introduce safeguards in their existing projects to ensure they do not inadvertently exacerbate conflict. Read more..

Climate change and migration: an overview (Global Encyclopaedia of Migration, 2013)

There is considerable historical and contemporary evidence that changes in climatic conditions have the potential to influence human migration patterns. Anthro­pogenic climate change will oblige human populations to undertake a range of adaptive strategies, which will happen at a variety of scales and levels from the individual or house­ hold through to higher­ level institutions. Read more..

Equity in Extractives: Stewarding Africa’s natural resources for all (Africa Progress Panel, 2013)

This report sets out an agenda for converting increased resource wealth into improved wellbeing. The starting point is a strengthened focus on equity and human development. Too many governments continue to view extractive industries solely as a source of growth and a magnet for foreign investment. I provided a background paper on the environmental, social and health impacts of mining in Africa as an input for this report from the Africa Progress Panel. Read more..

Encouraging peacebuilding through better natural resource management (Chatham House, 2013)

Natural resources such as conflict diamonds and illegal timber are known to trigger and prolong armed violence. Countries emerging from conflict face a range of complex environmental and natural resource-related problems. Improved natural resource management is a form of peace-building in that it encourages the development of clear, fair systems of ownership; creates mechanisms to resolve disputes; and promotes the equitable sharing of benefits from natural resource exploitation. Read more..

Remediation of polluted sites in Balkans, Iraq and Sierra Leone (UNEP & ELI, 2012)

Countries emerging from conflict face myriad complex challenges, including restoring peace and security, rebuilding infrastructure and the economy, and providing for the basic needs of their people. The natural environment is often harshly affected during conflicts, and restoring and rehabilitating ecosystems to ensure long-term sustainability is an additional challenge that post-conflict societies must address. Read more..

Environmental assessment as a tool for peacebuilding and development (UNEP & ELI, 2012)

Investing in environmental assessment is a focused and cost-effective intervention in post-conflict states because EIAs are a catalytic intervention for environmental governance that has long-lived implications for the sustainability of extractive industries. This chapter outlines some of the challenges to that process in Sierra Leone and describes the ways in which these challenges have been addressed. Read more..

Greening the blue helmets: Environment, natural resources and UN peacekeeping operations (UNEP, DPKO & DFS, 2012)

This report shows that peacekeeping operations not only have important natural resource implications, as well as significant impacts on the environment, but also that natural resources are often a fundamental aspect of conflict resolution, livelihoods and confidence-building at the local level. Read more..

Conservation and Peacebuilding in Sierra Leone (IISD, 2012)

The aim of this paper is to assess the status of conservation in Sierra Leone, to outline some of the key threats to protected area management in the country and try to understand how conservation can be done in a way that is “conflict-sensitive”—or, to put it another way, how to manage protected areas in a way that does not create or exacerbate tensions and conflicts. Read more..

Capacity Development in post-conflict settings (EU-UN, 2012)

Conflict-sensitive natural resource management (NRM) systems are an important tool for preventing violence. A NRM system is conflict-sensitive if the power to make decisions about vital resources can be contested by different stakeholders without violence. This Guidance Note identifies some of the challenges associated with capacity-building for NRM that arise in conflict-affected and fragile states; it then focuses on the goals of NRM and capacity-building. Read more..

Rising temperatures, Rising tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East (IISD, 2009)

In a region already considered the world’s most water- scarce and where, in many places, demand for water already outstrips supply, climate models are predicting a hotter, drier and less predictable climate. This report seeks to present a neutral analysis of the security threat of climate change in the region over the next 40 years. Read more..

From Conflict to Peacebuilding: the role of natural resources and the environment (UNEP & PBSO, 2009)

This report, authored by UNEP and selected members of the Expert Advisory Group, aims to summarize the current academic knowledge and field experience on the links between environment, conflict and peacebuilding. Written to inform UN entities, Member States and other peacebuilding actors, it presents fourteen case studies and provides key recommendations for addressing natural resources and the environment in conflict management. Read more..

Climate change and security in Africa (IISD, 2009)

As science has revealed the speed and scope of climate change, we have begun to realize that it holds potentially serious implications for international security. Climate change—by redrawing the maps of water availability, food security, disease prevalence and coastal boundaries— could increase forced migration, raise tensions and trigger new conflicts. Read more..

A recurring anarchy? The emergence of climate change as a threat to international peace and security (Conflict, Security and Development, 2009)

This paper reviews in greater detail the development of conceptualisations of environment and security that influence current discussions over the potential impacts of climate change on security, paying particular attention to the ways in which West Africa is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Read more..

The numbers game (Forced Migration Review, 2008)

Estimates of the potential number of ‘climate change migrants’ vary hugely. In order to persuade policymakers of the need to act and to provide a sound basis for appropriate responses, there is an urgent need for better analysis, better data and better predictions. Read more..

Boom or bust: how commodity price volatility impedes poverty reduction, and what to do about it (IISD, 2008)

Commodity price volatility is a big problem for commodity-dependent countries and producers. An estimated two billion people, nearly a third of the global population, depend on the production of primary commodities like rice, cotton and copper. At the heart of the commodity price problem is the imperfect nature of commodity markets. The theoretical ideal of a supply-meets-demand market equilibrium is rarely, if ever, actually achieved because commodity supply and demand forces respond inflexibly to price fluctuations. Read more..

Migration and Climate Change (IOM, 2008)

Predicting future flows of climate migrants is complex; stymied by a lack of baseline data, distorted by population growth and reliant on the evolution of climate change as well as the quantity of future emissions. Nonetheless this paper sets out three broad scenarios, based on differing emissions forecasts, for what we might expect. These range from the best case scenario where serious emissions reduction takes place and a “Marshall Plan” for adaptation is put in place, to the “business as usual” scenario where the large-scale migration foreseen by the most gloomy analysis comes true, or is exceeded. Read more..

Assessing the security implications of climate change in West Africa: Country case studies of Ghana and Burkina Faso (IISD, 2008)

There have been some attempts to construct scenarios of the security implications of climate change at a global scale. But the country-level security impacts of climate change have been lost in the midst of the political rhetoric. Local experts in the subject countries are rarely consulted. This paper is a modest effort to address this research gap and to test the links that have been hypothesized to see to what extent they reflect a realistic future for two different countries in West Africa as the impacts of climate change gather pace. Read more..

Trade, Aid and Security – an agenda for peace and development (Earthscan, 2007)

There have been some attempts to construct scenarios of the security Aid policy and trade policy – the crucial tools to unlock development – are seldom looked at from the perspective of promoting security, and security is not generally seen as a precondition for development. The need to see these objectives – trade, aid and security – as interlocking components of the overriding objectives of peace and development is the point of this book. Read more..

Supermarket buying power: global supply chains and smallholder farmers (IISD, 2007)

Supermarkets now dominate food sales in developed countries and are rapidly expanding their global presence. At the same time, international consolidation and aggressive pricing strategies have concentrated market power in the hands of a few major retailers and strengthened their control over their suppliers. This paper is about the impact of the supermarkets’ increased market power on global supply chains and what this means for smallholder farmers in the developing world. Read more..

Climate change and foreign policy: an exploration of greater options for integration (IISD, 2007)

An integrated climate change–foreign policy approach has the potential to improve prospects for more effective efforts to address climate change at the national and international level. The areas of diplomacy and foreign relations, energy security, peace and security, trade and investment and development cooperation all involve domestic and international policies that could fundamentally alter the ability and willingness of nations and the international community to meet the challenges of climate change. Read more..

Natural disasters and resource rights (IISD, 2006)

Natural disasters such as hurricanes, tsunamis and earthquakes damage and destroy the land, sea, forest and other resources vital to peoples’ livelihoods. They kill titleholders, destroy documentation and erase demarcations. Compensation after such disasters is often inadequate, and movements of refugees can increase competition over scarce resources. Where resource rights are clearly defined, equitable and verifiable, poor and marginalized communities are better equipped to survive disasters and recover after them. Read more..

Conserving the peace in the Albertine Rift (IISD, 2006)

The Albertine Rift is host to some of Africa’s richest biodiversity, as well as the site of some of its most intense social and political upheavals. Conservationists working in the region are faced with mounting socio-economic pressures that not only threaten biodiversity but make their jobs more challenging and potentially dangerous. This calls for adaptive and innovative approaches to planning, implementing and evaluating conservation interventions so that they minimize risks and address some of the root causes of threats to conservation. Read more..

Regional Trade Agreements and conflict: Promoting conflict or building peace (IISD, 2005)

Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have become defining features of the modern economy and a powerful force for globalization. By the beginning of 2005 more than 250 RTAs had been notified to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The example of the European Union as an economically successful trade agreement and peaceful political arrangement has much to offer the world. But RTAs can be divisive and exclusive, and their terms can embed regional tensions and power imbalances. Read more..

Aiding or Abetting? Dilemmas of foreign aid and political instability in Melanesia (IISD, 2005)

Since independence, the self-governing nations of Melanesia – Papua New Guinea (PNG), the Solomon Islands, Fiji and Vanuatu – have been the recipients of a steady flow of foreign aid. Between 1995 and 1999 average per capita aid to Melanesia was US$73, three times that to Sub-Saharan Africa and 35 times aid to India. Yet aid in Melanesia seems to be failing to achieve many of its goals. Read more..

Cutting our Losses? Reducing the Illegal Trade in Natural Resources (IISD 2004)

Since independence, the self-governing nations of Melanesia – Papua New The illegal trade of natural resources, such as wildlife and tropical timber, is a global problem of huge scale; driving conflict, promoting corruption and rewarding criminals. It also destroys biodiversity and undermines livelihoods. It is an issue that intersects environment and development. However, all is not lost. Solutions are possible but need political will and concerted effort. Read more..