Britain once ruled the waves, but, for the moment, its
dominion is confined to the airwaves. With Theresa May’s tweaked deal ruled out for a second
time on Tuesday, and a no-deal exit from the EU on 29th March voted
down on Wednesday, the UK is now stuck in a holding pattern. Most likely
this will involve a three month or so extension of Article 50.
And so this monumental act of national self-harm rolls on in
its infuriating absurdity: yet more uncertainty for business, continued stress
for EU citizens in the UK and Brits in the EU, yet more time for people around
the world to scratch their heads in wonder at what Britain, previously a byword
for caution and good governance, has done to itself.
There is no objective way to ‘score’ Brexit. Any argument on
Brexit, mine included, is riven with all sorts of ideological slants and
confirmation biases.
But, for the moment, let’s set aside the discussion about Brexit’s
impact on political discourse (terrible), economic cost (short-term, certainly
bad; long-term, the jury is out), security implications (a high degree of
cooperation is likely to continue: it’s too important not to), and the capacity
of Brits to live and work easily across Europe (the lost opportunities are
incalculable).
I want to focus instead on what Brexit means for the UK’s
position in the world. How does Brexit affect Britain’s ability to effect
change, project soft power and influence the world community: in essence, to
persuade people to do things that are good for Britain?
Sure, if and when Brexit goes through, Britain will have
more of a voice in world affairs. No longer will diplomats need defer to EU
speaking points at international meetings. Britain will be able to determine
its own foreign policy more rapidly, without having to worry about political
ripples within the EU.
So, it will have a clearer voice. But that voice will
whisper from a much weaker position. This is for four reasons.
First, whatever Nigel Farage may tell you, Brexit takes
Britain from rule maker to rule taker. Instead of being a leading voice in a
market of more than 500 million, Britain after Brexit – with a market of just
66 million – will be a much tougher sell for British negotiators.
This is only going to slide further: Britain is now the
world’s fifth largest economy, but the country is fast being eclipsed by
emerging economies – Britain is projected
to fall to 10th in the world by 2030. Post-Brexit Britain will need
to sign trade deals, and fast. Even Trump’s Art of the Deal will tell you that
a weak negotiating position and time pressure aren’t good starting points: chlorinated
chicken and GMO food? Sure! Many more visas
as conditions for a trade deal? Ok!
Second, if your influence is judged by your friends, then
Brexit is sure losing Britain a lot of them. A large part of the ‘special
relationship’ that politicians from the UK and the US have long liked to harp
on about is reliant on the UK being a bridge between Europe and the US. That
bridge is smouldering now.
Third, Brexit is sapping one of Britain’s most important but
least tangible assets: its soft power. The lies that were told during the
referendum campaign, as well as the inability of Parliament to develop a plan for
Brexit, have tarnished the reputation of the Westminster system more than we
will ever know. Meanwhile, the proposals
from some within the Conservative Party to slash foreign aid and roll the
Department for International Development back into the Foreign and Commonwealth
Office would strike a blow to the UK’s reputation as a good global citizen.
Finally, with Britain fading as an economic power and politically cut off from the European Union, its permanent seat on the UN Security Council is looking more than ever like the anachronistic victors’ peace that it is. Britain’s seat isn’t predicated on its relationship to the EU. However, Britain will no longer be able to join France in claiming to represent, in some way, a powerful coalition of interests. It’s safe to predict that the seat will be first to go in any reform of the Security Council, and don’t count on the US or Russia rushing to Britain’s defence when that moment comes.
Ultimately – and this is the central irony of Brexit – in
trying to return to a halcyon view of a past, mythically glorious Britain,
Brexiteers are hastening the end of Britain as a global power.
This is the also the core tragedy of Brexit. At a time when
the world needs collective action more than ever – to deal with climate change,
to stem nuclear proliferation, to address international terrorism, to reverse
the crashing ecosystem of the planet – Britain is turning its back on international
cooperation. Fool Britannia indeed.
